Normal drop chance of Halloween Princes on 40AP is 0.8%
Party quest with Atalanta and Orion is 1% (this numers is written on gamepress)
So trick is: just kill Atalanta and if you saw golden rainbow chest - kill Orion and finish quest, otherwise withdraw. You will not get any materials for exchange of higher change of drop. I personally recommend farming 40AP, but this trick worked for me year ago with 3 attempts (pure luck honestly).
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